Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 9.233043 10.617978 12.116567 13.855670 15.815271 17.951860 20.454582
2025-04-20 7.341106 9.236020 11.451153 14.219558 17.573501 21.491248 26.398971
2025-04-27 6.359521 8.476349 11.075695 14.479093 18.791708 24.045970 30.900202
2025-05-04 5.463553 7.676714 10.518591 14.398669 19.515863 25.986278 34.731486
2025-05-11 4.732468 6.968296 9.954783 14.184390 19.959230 27.498021 37.999950
2025-05-18 4.219635 6.484216 9.619266 14.208006 20.669986 29.347780 41.762460
2025-05-25 3.839884 6.136724 9.422129 14.376920 21.551595 31.433522 45.909805
2025-06-01 3.467364 5.754284 9.129446 14.366321 22.151634 33.132408 49.578129
2025-06-08 3.114695 5.361268 8.778416 14.226776 22.531964 34.512439 52.833152
2025-06-15 2.870679 5.111557 8.616359 14.345957 23.281905 36.438262 56.939687
2025-06-22 2.722953 5.001527 8.657144 14.770551 24.504136 39.100441 62.232579
2025-06-29 2.469623 4.687930 8.343663 14.604633 24.790423 40.358987 65.466255
2025-07-06 2.126316 4.188792 7.691677 13.852492 24.118067 40.142585 66.485842
2025-07-13 2.010067 4.082577 7.690509 14.175086 25.191808 42.683672 71.886095
2025-07-20 1.897249 3.969874 7.665575 14.448441 26.188958 45.135985 77.236871
2025-07-27 1.740096 3.756997 7.444946 14.363138 26.572270 46.610230 81.078629
2025-08-03 1.581096 3.523539 7.166371 14.151058 26.717865 47.690351 84.311654
2025-08-10 1.469054 3.371981 7.025588 14.174024 27.265991 49.452034 88.726999
2025-08-17 1.385115 3.269305 6.967894 14.342787 28.075313 51.680571 94.002182
2025-08-24 1.287215 3.126962 6.821376 14.332137 28.555879 53.361391 98.410425
2025-08-31 1.183964 2.962054 6.616318 14.192916 28.788112 54.614156 102.125317
2025-09-07 1.116345 2.868978 6.547638 14.311834 29.500303 56.729738 107.405204
2025-09-14 1.083132 2.850845 6.630981 14.735527 30.805431 59.946616 114.730260